What Is Value Betting

Sports betting not only provides an opportunity to make small profits but is also a method of increasing the entertainment value of a given sporting fixture. One form of betting not many people are aware of is value betting. Value betting is often seen as an advanced technique; however, we believe this is not the case. 

In this article, we are going to break down value betting and help you decide whether it’s a good

for yourself. We will provide ways to place value bets yourself as well as show you why you should consider placing these types of bets. So join us as we look at everything to do with this uncommon betting strategy. 

What Does A Value Bet Mean

Value is a common phrase typically used in financial investment and has the same meaning in sports betting. If a selection's probability of happening is less than it should be, then there is an opportunity for a value bet. Successful bettors and traders understand the difference between a selection's chance of happening and how they compare to the odds available. To be a successful bettor, you must be able to identify value bets and bet on them regardless of how likely or unlikely it is to happen. 

Placing a bet that offers value is not as simple as just looking for good odds on a favourite. Yes, odds on favourites are more likely to win than not, but that does not always mean the odds offer value. Instead, the key to long-term successful betting is understanding the probability of an outcome accurately and identifying where the market is out of line.

Probability and Odds

Probability is the likelihood of an event happening and is usually represented as a percentage. Betting involves assessing the odds of an event happening and comparing it against the odds which are made by the bookmakers. The bookmakers measure the probability and turn that into the odds. The betting value appears when the odds available are not a true reflection of the probability of the outcome occurring. 

For example, let's say we were to bet on a coin toss. If the coin is fair, then there is a 50% chance of it landing on heads or tails. Therefore, each outcome has odds of 2.0. This would result in a value of 0 as, theoretically if you flipped the coin indefinitely, it would land on each side an equal amount of times. 

Let's say I offer you odds of 2.15 on heads, and you place a £10 bet. Then you could calculate the value as so:

(Amount won per bet x probability of winning) - (amount lost per bet x probability of losing) 

(11.50 x 0.5) - (10 x 0.5) = 0.75

This shows a value of 0.75, and this is a great betting value. Using this calculator, you would expect to make an average profit of 75p for each £10 bet placed because the odds received are better than the odds of the event actually occurring. This theory can be applied to betting to find bets which offer better odds than there is actually a chance of the event occurring. 

Odds With a Bookmaker

Value bets may not seem like a good idea; blindly placing bets on games with slightly misinformed odds may seem like a waste. However, mathematically, if you are able to consistently find bets with good value, the chance of profiting increases over the long term. 

However, if value bets were easy to find, then everyone would do it, and bookmakers would lose money. Using the same coin toss analogy, we will quickly explain how bookmakers make money. Acknowledging that a coin toss has an equal probability of 2.0, a bookmaker will usually provide odds of 1.90 for each outcome, which results in a value of -0.5. This means that, over time, you would lose 50p for every £10 placed. This is how bookmakers make money, and it is a common tactic to ensure that with every bet, they are more likely to come out with a profit than a loss. However, with so many fixtures to set odds for, they can't get it right every time. 

How to Identify Value Bets

As we have previously mentioned, finding value bets can be tricky, as bookmakers are actively trying to stop players from finding them. However, bookmakers are bound to make mistakes, and this is where you can make a profit. In this section, we will go over some methods to find value in your bets. 

Set Your Own Odds

Make sure to stay informed about whichever sport it is you are betting on. By doing this, you may be able to spot inconsistent odds by assessing your own probability of an event occurring. For example, Manchester City will always be the favourite to beat West Ham, and therefore, the odds for West Ham winning will be very high. However, the bookmaker may not realise that Manchester City have an awful record against West Ham and that their best centre-backs are injured. By using this knowledge, you can assess the probability of West 

Ham winning and take advantage of those high odds to find good value. 

Think In Probabilities

The aim of value betting is to find inconsistencies in the probability of an event occurring and the odds, not finding favourites with high odds or underdogs who you think may win. Favourites do not win all the time, and the primary aim is to find games where the odds are misaligned with the probability. At the same time, don't be concerned about betting on the underdog and simply focus on finding good value regardless of whether it's on the favourite or underdog. 

Summary

This has been our guide to value betting; we hope you find this information useful so you can start to find value in your bets today.