Football Transfers: How to Bet on Them

The rumour mill is constantly rife with tenuous transfer links. But interestingly all that drives the transfer betting markets at 

football fans are looking into to get the best odds. It is an area of football betting that certainly warrants a little closer inspection.

Because there are only two windows of transfer activity every season, it is an area of sports betting that should allow for a lot of planning. 

Financial Power Dictates

Football transfer markets are tough to navigate. You can usually see when a certain player is pushing for a move away from a club. It could be that they are spending more time on the bench, not looking 100% when they are on the pitch or just outright stating that they are unhappy.

Finding value in the transfer market by betting on high-profile players is not particularly easy. That’s because of the imbalance of financial power in the beautiful game. Only certain clubs have the spending power to go and snap up the latest young superstar from somewhere like Borussia Dortmund.

If there is a player rated £80 million or up, then it’s not likely a team struggling in the bottom half of the Premier League table is going to get in on the bidding action. In fact, you will commonly see in certain players’ Next Club betting markets, one team sitting at an odds-on quote for the simple reason of there being limited destination options. 

Next Permanent Club

This is a big market to look into for transfer betting. It could be that a young England star is starting to make waves at his hometown club, say Aston Villa, but he has a few years left on his contract with them.

So a move becomes less likely at that point. But you can project ahead and still select a team that he will join next, at whatever time in his career that it happens. This market naturally becomes a lot more active when the time on a current player’s contract is running out.

Again though, it’s often worth skipping over higher profile players, or media overhyped players in this market as it strips out some of the value.

Player to Stay

There have been some famous transfer turnarounds. Think Kylian Mbappe who looked certain to go to Real Madrid in the summer of 2022, but then pulled a late switcheroo to stun everyone by announcing he was staying at PSG.

The To Stay option in transfer market betting is something to consider. It’s based on the next available transfer window, which is an interesting part of this entire scenario. Out of desperation to keep a player, a club may throw the kitchen sink at holding onto a player as the opening of a transfer window approaches.

That’s usually down to the club stumping up a new contract with bigger wages, but players do change their minds and stay on board. Transfer betting doesn’t always have to involve a transfer to another club! 

Gauge the Media

It is worth searching around and finding yourself some good, reliable and preferably impartial sources for football news. The less sensationalised the football news is, the better. You want to be able to cut through the massive amount of noise that exists out there about football transfers.

If things seem like sheer transfer speculation without any sound base reported anywhere else, it’s probably worth a pass. But there is information, valuable information at that, to be garnered from reputable news sources.

Listen to interviews with football managers to try and test the temperature. You could also use the power of social media to aid your betting. Players don’t hesitate to jump on Twitter or Instagram to fire up some content when they are feeling a bit disgruntled. 

Shop Around

The transfer market area of football betting again is wildly speculative. That means it’s harder for the bookmakers to really nail down what is going on. For something like a Man City v Crystal Palace Premier League match, there would be a consensus that a home win is most likely.

But with transfer markets, you may be able to shop around and catch a gem of a price at one bookmaker. Browse around a player’s Next Club After the Transfer Window market and compare prices between bookmakers. It’s harder for a settled market across all operators to fall into place.

So you may be able to find a price, for example, of Chelsea 2/1 on the Declan Rice Next Club After the Transfer Window at Bookmaker A, but a quote of 5/1 at another, just because the volatile landscape is tough for traders to navigate.

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